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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."